The Perfect Storm
The Perfect Storm
This week has brought some glimmers of hope in the housing market. From an unexpected increase in existing and new home sales to the announcement today that KB Homes, one of the Countries largest home builders, had a 26% increase in new home contracts last month, it appears that the housing market is beginning to stabilize.
Over the past several months, pundits have given their opinion of when the housing market would turn around, and when would be the best time for potential home owners to jump into the market. If you are looking to purchase an existing home, I suppose there could still be room for argument as to whether the most opportune time to purchase has indeed arrived. But, what if you own, or are looking for land, and would like to build your own Custom Home? Could there still be a legitimate argument that now is not the best time to move forward on that dream home you’ve always wanted?
Rather than giving an opinion, let’s discuss facts. There are several things we know to be true about the current housing environment.
- Interest Rates: On March 26th, 2009, Freddie Mac announced that the current average interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.85%. And, on March 27, 2009, John Koskinen, Freddie Mac’s interim chief executive officer, stated that interest rates are “ probably as good as it’s going to get” and the housing market is likely to rebound sooner than some forecasts.
- Affordability: The National Association of Realtors’ Affordability index for January rose to record levels. Though there is no similar “affordability index” for land purchases, it is likely that the housing market’s decline over the past three years has also created tremendous opportunities for land purchases. In other words, that perfect lot for your new home may never be more affordable than it is right now.
- Availability of Builders and Subcontractors: It only takes a few discussions with veterans of the building trades to realize that the housing downturn has created an industry eager to go back to work building America’s Homes. Rather than the stress-filled, often less than Customer-oriented, environment during the housing boom, potential home owners who want to build a new home will definitely have their Builders attention.
- Lower Costs: Costs for such things as lumber and drywall have hit multi-year lows. Many suppliers, in an effort to bolster sales, are offering discounts or incentives; creating tremendous buying power. Economists agree that an eventual affect of the government stimulus will be inflation. Costs are almost assuredly going to move higher as the economy begins to recover.
- Availability of Financing: Despite all the negative commentary on the availability of credit, it is possible for those with good credit, and a reasonable down payment to get very attractive financing options. Loans are not as readily available as they were a few years ago, and most people agree that this is a positive result of the housing downturn rather than a negative. The bottom line is that for those who have good credit, and a reasonable down payment and/or equity, financing is available.
All of these items combine to create a sort of “perfect storm” for the housing market, and should be especially attractive for those who want to build a new home. If you are in the market to build a new home, and it makes good financial sense to do so, there truly is a window of opportunity to build at the lowest cost in decades, and secure the lowest cost financing available since prior to World War II. Don’t miss this opportunity!
Steve Wallin, President
Custom Homes of Asheville